Shock and Awe Something Else

One of the problems with writing a blog full of gleeful inaccuracies and opinionated stupidity is that sometimes you get caught out. And when you do get caught out there are your words on the internet for somebody else to wave in your face. I got caught out over the entire No Fly Zone over Libya issue. I thought there was no way it would happen then with the metaphorical ink still wet on the figurative page of my blog tomahawk missiles started breaking half the windows in Tripoli.

The UN, the US, the Arab League and the less wretched members of NATO leapt into action with a vigour and unity of purpose that lasted almost until the first missile was fired. After which it all fell apart of course.

Russia and China, whose abstentions permitted to UN Security Council to behave with what might look like decision if you didn't look too closely, hedged their bets by criticising an action they could have stopped with a single word. It was interesting to hear Russian president Dmitry Medvedev using his once a year free pass to criticise his prime minister but apart from that there was nothing new. The Arab League was all in favour of a no fly zone until it looked like someone might actually implement one; now they're less keen. Apparently they aren't happy that the first thing the United States did was take steps to ensure that Qaddafi couldn't implement a no fly zone on them. The Americans learnt a long time ago that in warfare it is better if the casualties happen to somebody else. It would take a nastier and more cynical mind than I possess to suggest that the Arab League wouldn't exactly saturate its pillow with tears if the US took a couple of score aircraft casualties by attempting to impose a no fly zone without suppressing Qaddafi's air defences first.

The United States meanwhile is attempting to palm the whole business off on to somebody else as soon as possible so that they can fade discreetly into the background. Their essential position is "We've knocked him down, now somebody else can kick him" or to put it another way "We broke it, you buy it." Good luck with that aim guys, the squabbling has already started. Britain and, I think, France want NATO to lead the effort. Turkey and the Arab League disagree. Germany wants nothing to do with any of it and Luxembourg has announced that they could not possibly give their support unless the operation was under the auspices of NATO. Well god forbid that France or Britain should have to face Qaddafi's hordes (actually barely a single horde) without the serried ranks of Luxembourg firm by their side. Lets face it, Luxembourg's only contribution to warfare is to occasionally provide the venue but Libya won the bid this time.

The real problem the European leaders face is the same one the Roman senators faced after the assassination of Caligula. Having been deprived of real power decades ago by Augustus when the time came for them to step up and reassert themselves as leaders of the "republic" they couldn't do it. They had forgotten how. The only thing they could think of to do was offer power to another emperor. If the United States thinks it can slide out from under this one it has a serious disillusionment coming.

Now, lets see how much of this entry remains accurate for as much as forty eight hours.